A sustained move under $53.61 will signal the existence of sellers showing a bull trap. This may trigger a labored break with potential targets weighing $52.40, $51.29 and $50.66. If $50.66 fails as support discover the supplying extend into the main retracement zone at $50.28 to $48.83.
A sustained move over $54.00 will indicate the existence of buyers. This will also indicate that Friday’s move was fueled by fake buying rather and just buy stops. The upside momentum won’t continue and testing $54.98 can be a fantasy for buyers from fuelled trade talks.
Lifting Iranian sanctions may significant influence on the planet oil market. Iran’s oil reserves are the fourth largest in the world with a production capacity of around 4 million barrels a day, making them the second largest producer in OPEC. Iran’s oil reserves take into account approximately 10% with the world’s total proven petroleum reserves, at the rate of the 2006 production the reserves in Iran could last 98 years. Most likely Iran will prove to add about 1 million barrels of oil every day towards the market and in line with the world bank this will likely result in the lowering of the oil price by $10 per barrel the coming year.
In accordance with Data from OPEC, at the start of 2013 the greatest oil deposits are in Venezuela being 20% of worldwide oil reserves, Saudi Arabia 18%, Canada 13% and Iran 9%. Because of the characteristics with the reserves it isn’t always possible to bring this oil for the surface given the limitation on extraction technologies along with the cost to extract.
As China’s increased need for propane rather than fossil fuel further reduces overall interest in oil, the increase in supply from Iran and the continuation Saudi Arabia putting more oil to the market should understand the price drop in the next Twelve months and several analysts are predicting prices will get into the $30’s.
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