Both once the CBOE future expired and after this, in the event the CME bitcoin future is originating settlement, there were an amazing decrease in the bitcoin price. Both futures has quite a low volume i would reckon that they may be covered with one single liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex trading maker is probably short the longer term and perhaps long lots of. At expiry, they’ll profit if your price is low and have a border after settlement in the event the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a really bad settlement processes which are all to easy to manipulate. For CBOE it does not take auction price for Gemini – a tender which has a small volume most of the time.
CME’s model is best, however not as good, VWAP about the four major exchanges is a good idea, in case that VWAP is calculated on just one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the volume on this type of brief time period is quite limited. Even when many large participants might have interests in almost any of these settlement processes they’d most likely have similar position and benefits from the identical side of the market manipulation. The VWAP will need to have been calculated over several hours instead). In conclusion is that we likely will discover a lot of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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